About NFL Trade Value
nfltradevalue.com · Last updated: April 2026
The Five Chart Models
Jimmy Johnson Chart
The original NFL draft trade value chart, created by Dallas Cowboys head coach Jimmy Johnson in the early 1990s. Johnson built the chart during his tenure with the Cowboys as a negotiating tool — a shared reference point that both sides of a trade could agree to use. It assigns the #1 overall pick a value of 3,000 points, with values dropping steeply through the top ten picks and leveling off in later rounds.
Despite being created without modern analytics, the Johnson chart has proven remarkably durable. It remains the most widely referenced chart in NFL front offices more than three decades later. Its main criticism is that it overvalues top picks relative to what those players actually produce — a premium driven by perceived potential rather than measured output. Even so, it functions as the de facto lingua franca of NFL trade negotiations.
Source: DraftTek →Rich Hill Chart
An analytically-derived trade value chart built to better reflect actual player performance relative to draft position. The Rich Hill chart assigns the #1 overall pick 1,000 points and uses a smoother, more gradual decay curve than the Johnson chart. The result is a distribution that gives mid-to-late round picks meaningfully more weight.
The philosophy behind the Hill chart is that the Johnson chart's steep early-pick premium reflects market irrationality — front offices paying more than the statistical evidence justifies for the chance at a franchise player. The Hill chart attempts to correct for that by grounding values in what picks historically produce. Teams with a strong analytics culture tend to view the Hill chart as a more honest accounting of draft pick value.
Source: Pats Pulpit →Fitzgerald-Spielberger Chart
A data-driven chart that uses
Pro Football Reference's Approximate Value (AV) metric to calculate the expected value of each draft slot based on decades of historical player performance. Like the Johnson chart, it values the #1 overall pick at 3,000 points — but the way that value is distributed across rounds is quite different. The Fitzgerald-Spielberger chart spreads value more evenly, reducing the steep cliff that the Johnson chart has after the top picks.
This chart is popular with analytically-minded front offices as a counterweight to Johnson. It shares the same scale, making direct comparisons easy, but produces different winners in trades involving significant gaps between early and mid-round picks.
Harvard HSAC Chart
Developed by the
Harvard Sports Analysis Collective, this chart applies statistical modeling to historical draft data to produce a pick value curve grounded entirely in measured on-field production. The #1 overall pick is assigned a value of 494.6 points — far more conservative than the Johnson or Fitzgerald-Spielberger charts.
The HSAC chart reflects a view that the NFL market chronically overvalues top draft picks, particularly in the top five. High picks carry enormous uncertainty; even the consensus best player in a class has a non-trivial chance of busting. The Harvard chart attempts to price that uncertainty in. It tends to make trades involving top-ten picks look more even than other charts do, and makes trading down look more attractive.
Chase Stuart Chart
Created by football analytics writer
Chase Stuart, this chart is built on career Approximate Value data from
Pro Football Reference. The scale is entirely different from the other four charts — the #1 overall pick is valued at 34.6 points. This is intentional: Stuart designed the chart to represent expected career production directly, without normalizing to an arbitrary point scale.
The Chase Stuart chart is one of the most conservative assessments of the premium attached to high draft picks. It assigns meaningful value to picks well into the later rounds, reflecting the reality that late-round contributors exist and matter. For trades involving multiple picks spread across rounds, this chart often produces the most balanced evaluation.
About the Author
Built by Jared Courter, a software engineer that enjoys building small web applications focused on sports and data. Most of my projects are simple tools designed to make stats, strategy, and data easier (and more fun) to explore.
Frequently Asked Questions
How does the trade calculator work?
Select a team on each side, add the draft picks being exchanged, and the calculator instantly totals the value of each side across all five chart models. A consensus result shows which team won the trade based on how many charts favor each side.
Which chart should I use?
Jimmy Johnson is the industry standard — it's what most NFL teams reference during negotiations. If you want a more analytically grounded view, the Fitzgerald-Spielberger and Harvard HSAC charts incorporate actual player performance data. The consensus result is a useful sanity check across all five models at once.
What is Trade Finder?
Trade Finder automatically generates trade packages for any draft pick. Trade Up shows every combination of picks that matches or exceeds your target pick's value on the selected chart. Trade Down shows the best packages you could realistically receive in return for moving back.
Why do the charts give different results?
Each chart was built with a different methodology. The Johnson chart was created in the 1990s based on intuition and negotiation experience. The analytical charts — Rich Hill, Fitzgerald-Spielberger, Harvard, and Chase Stuart — use decades of historical draft data to calculate expected player value by slot. They tend to agree on the direction of a trade but often differ on the magnitude, especially for high picks.
Is the 2026 draft pick ownership data accurate?
Pick ownership data is sourced from publicly available reports as of early 2026. Conditional pick protections and complex multi-team trades may not be fully reflected. Always verify against your team's official reporting before using for serious analysis.
Is this tool free?
Yes — completely free to use, with no account or login required. If you find it useful, the Buy Me a Coffee button in the nav goes a long way.